No Recession After All?

On Tuesday, the Dow rallied 178 points after an unexpected rise in retail sales of %0.3 when economists were expecting a decrease.

Maybe the economy is not so close to recession after all!? Not so fast says the Big Picture blog: Real Retail Sales Fall to 2003 Levels . In a series of posts, BR demonstrates that the rise in retail sales was all inflation and/or energy related:

Take the Retail Sales EX Inflation (gasoline, food & beverage) and retail sales were DOWN. Excluding inflation, demand at all other retailers last month were unchanged to negative. Economically, speaking, how bullish is that?

This is why I read blogs – you rarely get this kind of insightful analysis about what’s really going on from the mainstream news. CNN’s headline is simple: retail sales were good and that’s why the market rallied 200 points.

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I have increased my cash position to 40% of the portfolio. I’m also looking to add short exposure either through put options or ProShares UltraShort products.

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